shrug I stated pretty vehemently yesterday that I thought a day 1 lynch is dumb and very much against the odds of succeeding. True, it does potentially lead to future evidence, but at the cost of at best a townie dieing, I don't see the odds being there unless someone for some reason has a really good read.
shrug I stated pretty vehemently yesterday that I thought a day 1 lynch is dumb and very much against the odds of succeeding. True, it does potentially lead to future evidence, but at the cost of at best a townie dieing, I don't see the odds being there unless someone for some reason has a really good read.
I think you're thinking about this the wrong way. The way the game is set is specifically so town can make some mistakes, and still come out ahead. Mislynching someone isn't the end of the world. Arguing that you shouldn't lynch someone unless you have a good read is a good way to lose the game in the long run.
Just listening to people talk is NEVER going to give you a good read. Not a reliable read anyway. Townspeople say too many silly things, and that can get taken for being scum too easily. If you don't lynch anyone today, then all you've done is deprive yourself of information. Analyzing voting trends is far more reliable than people spouting random words. Anyone who actually wants to win will want to get people to actually commit to as much as possible. Letting people be non-committal just provides places for scum to hide, and deny town information.
That's true but we hardly ever lynch Mafia on Day 1. Might as well have an extra Townie for Day 2 and beyond by not lynching anyone.
You seem to be missing my point. If you don't lynch anyone day 1, or even bother having them actively discuss things, then what have you gained? Will you suddenly have a good candidate for lynch on day 2? Your day 2 lynch is going to be just as uninformed as your day 1 lynch would have been. So will you skip that lynch too? Let it go to day 3? And if you haven't forced anyone to commit to anything on day 1 or 2, then what information do you have to give you any ideas on day 3? Your day 3 lynch will be just as uninformed as the others.
The point is that your first lynch of the game will ALWAYS be more likely to hit town than scum, regardless of what day you make that lynch on. You're never going to have the information to lynch correctly without forcing people to actually do things, and doing things involves actually lynching people.
There's only two possible ways to win this type of game. One way is blind luck. The other way is through vote analysis and process of elimination. But you can't do PoE without actually eliminating some people. Clearing out the chaff is actually a net positive for town, not a net negative.
On a side note, i dont think private eye should kill someone in this first night. I would save the bullets, but since i'm not him, i dont have to. Not to mention i would be scared of dying without using them.
So, as the private eye that i'm not, maybe i'll shoot someone tonight, even if only in my imagination. I see myself killing rohan. Also, if i were the private eye, which i'm not, and thinking on saving the bullets, i wouldn't be so active.
This means i must be vanilla town or evil, which lowers my chance of getting killed at night.
I'd rather keep the Pawns as long as possible rather than start pointing fingers and lynching people on Day 1. We've pointed fingers and lynched people like idiots time and again in previous games on Day 1, and what has that done? Hardly anything. Nearly always been a Townie being lynched and Town has an absolutely terrible record in respect of that.
At least on Day 2, you'll be slightly better informed because of night actions. Used in conjunction with what was said on Day 1 is a good starting point. I'm sorry but I completely disagree with your strategy for a Day 1 lynch.
damdred, i changed votes a lot as well, but i didnt unvote, i just removed the tags from previous votes and only left the one i wanted counted, i thought this would make things easier for the mod...
At least on Day 2, you'll be slightly better informed because of night actions. Used in conjunction with what was said on Day 1 is a good starting point.
Take a good look at the roles this game, there's not a whole heck of a lot of info coming town's way. The detective is all we have really, and there's not one, but TWO scum who screw with information received. Sure, I'll lynch someone if the detective says they turned up a red check, but there's no guarantee there. Just like a green check is no guarantee of someone being innocent. And in addition to that, if the detective claims on day 2, he's an idiot, unless we're about to lynch him. So really, there's 0 information gain for town as a whole. Your suggestion of being better informed is literally just one guy with a questionable check result. You think that's going to help you have better odds of success on day 2 rather than day 1? All you're doing is letting Scum snipe off better town players while you delay the start of town actually playing the game.
let me just point out we dont even know if we have a detective lol
....I had to go back and look at this again.
"Not all roles will be used and will be randomized what roles town and mafia end up with"
So good guys might have the bad guy roles? And detective could be a bad guy, or just non-existent?
Riiight, lol, this game is screwed. :P This makes sky's arguments even less valid than I thought. You should definitely not be counting on information that 1: might not exist, or 2: might be a bad-guy lying to you. And of course, 3: even if he does exist, and is town, he STILL should not be claiming prematurely, esp when we won't know if we can actually trust him or not.
No Ixta...those are the potential good guy roles and the potential bad guy roles. There will be a certain number of each. And those good guy roles go to the certain number of good guys just no clue which ones and same for the bad guys. Silly Ixta WW is for pros.
I'm with ixta on this. We don't know what's there and the mafia would rather keep more mouths at the table to only further confusion. Why no one sees this is beyond me.
Also why would a potential seer come out on day 2 and point the finger when that life is far more valuable late game?
Comments
Just listening to people talk is NEVER going to give you a good read. Not a reliable read anyway. Townspeople say too many silly things, and that can get taken for being scum too easily. If you don't lynch anyone today, then all you've done is deprive yourself of information. Analyzing voting trends is far more reliable than people spouting random words. Anyone who actually wants to win will want to get people to actually commit to as much as possible. Letting people be non-committal just provides places for scum to hide, and deny town information.
The point is that your first lynch of the game will ALWAYS be more likely to hit town than scum, regardless of what day you make that lynch on. You're never going to have the information to lynch correctly without forcing people to actually do things, and doing things involves actually lynching people.
There's only two possible ways to win this type of game. One way is blind luck. The other way is through vote analysis and process of elimination. But you can't do PoE without actually eliminating some people. Clearing out the chaff is actually a net positive for town, not a net negative.
On a side note, i dont think private eye should kill someone in this first night. I would save the bullets, but since i'm not him, i dont have to. Not to mention i would be scared of dying without using them.
So, as the private eye that i'm not, maybe i'll shoot someone tonight, even if only in my imagination. I see myself killing rohan. Also, if i were the private eye, which i'm not, and thinking on saving the bullets, i wouldn't be so active.
This means i must be vanilla town or evil, which lowers my chance of getting killed at night.
At least on Day 2, you'll be slightly better informed because of night actions. Used in conjunction with what was said on Day 1 is a good starting point. I'm sorry but I completely disagree with your strategy for a Day 1 lynch.
Edit: i suddenly realize you are the mod lol
i just realized something, debating over lynch or no lynch is void unless 100% agree with no lynch, because ties also implicate in mandatory kill
do you guys think the smuggler can make more than one person be triggered to check red in the same night?
"Not all roles will be used and will be randomized what roles town and mafia end up with"
So good guys might have the bad guy roles? And detective could be a bad guy, or just non-existent?
Riiight, lol, this game is screwed. :P This makes sky's arguments even less valid than I thought. You should definitely not be counting on information that 1: might not exist, or 2: might be a bad-guy lying to you. And of course, 3: even if he does exist, and is town, he STILL should not be claiming prematurely, esp when we won't know if we can actually trust him or not.
:: Pulls out tranquilizer gun.::
Also why would a potential seer come out on day 2 and point the finger when that life is far more valuable late game?
## Lynch Sky
and he was evil.
doesnt mean you are, but it smells weird to me
Mr. Saturns cannot be sawolves