Confirmed town: Damdred Kloudi Mages Kenshin SilentButterfly (at least I should be at this point.)
People who have posted more than once so far: Tyrsis Walls Tmonsta Rsoultin Flazer Tormented
The not-posters: Gl0stix Shining Sky Dragon Unreliable Corynewb Behold your king Zeality Rockz Darubian Meadowswillyoumarryme Loafery Phantom
I think there's a very good chance that 2 or even 3 in the list of not-posters are mafia. This list should be the starting point for our good guys. Let's see how the thread goes from here. If you are the seer, pay close attention from this point on, particularly to people in the not-posters list.
I should have been the only mason to reveal. I'm still new to ww. If I died, no big loss and we'd have validated the other masons
I don't like this for the exact opposite of walls reasoning. Whats the point of just one mason outing? The mafia are not going to be dumb enough to claim mason, knowing that they would be immediately targeted and then they would just kill you anyway. This way at least it narrows down the untouchables and the cops range of fire.
I'm not saying the masons shouldn't have claimed but we just killed a debate that could have revealed motives.
First off, I am happy I can actually be active in a game!
So, I've just spent the last 30 minutes reading through this and so far SB is an idiot. I have been doing a bit of math and as shotty as my math may be I think I may have it down.
So basically, the only thing SB has done for the town is given the mafia a chance to push the odds dramatically in their favor. Any decent player would see it in their favor right out of the gate. They spend the next two nights double killing the odds go from 1 in 14 to 1 and 10.
You count the fact that the vigilantes are going to come in and start firing out of the gate (as in traditional sk fashion) then those are odds are brought down from 1/8 to hit a role. Who cares if they even bother with the masons? By that time unless the town gets lucky they are going to have it in the bag.
Way to go SB, I think you just screwed the game. I would like to lynch you but I think we need every person we can confirm at this point. Additionally, I am really at a loss as to how I feel about a day one lynch, and you all know how I love lynching me some noobs.
If our vigis hit a mafia, or our seer finds a mafia it's all worth it. Every night we take 2 good actions. They can only kill 2 people at night, twice. The odds are in our favor, because there are 5 evil mafia.
You need to think from all perspectives darubian, not just the mafias.
I am thinking from all sides. Fantastic SB, the cop and seer both only have a 1/18 chance to do exactly that, were as the mafia has a much better chance of getting them. They have a better chance of seeing a town. You should have let the day play out and allowed an actual debate and/or peer pressure take place before pulling a power play like that.
The biggest difference between the town and the mafia though, is it really doesn't matter who the mafia kill. As long as those numbers just keep dwindling the town will be at an even further disadvantage.
Mafia has a 3/14 chance to hit either 1 of our vigis or our seer. They need to kill both vigis to be effective, so really the only thing that would really fuck us is if they hit seer.
Meanwhile, our seer and vigis have 5/16 chance to hit mafia.
31% chance for the good guys to hit a mafia 21% chance for mafia to hit a power role (and only 7% that they get the seer).
If you include me in the confirmed town
Odd for mafia improve to 23% Odds for town improve to 33%
No matter how you look at it, it's better for town this way.
Yup. Whether we agree with SBs move or not, it has been made, the masons are out (probably, cause it would be hilarious if mafia tried that move), and this isn't the worst thing that could happen odds-wise.
Town good roles know who each other are, so they know the 4 Masons, possibly SB, and the three of them -- so that removes 8. With 23 players, that's 5/13 chance of hitting them.
In hindsight, forcing the issue was a good call so let's get over it.
There was over 100 posts since I sat down for a movie. I'll get caught up in the morning. We have a smaller lynch pool thanks to the mason reveal based on what I skimmed through, so that is a plus.
Comments
Damdred
Kloudi
Mages
Kenshin
SilentButterfly (at least I should be at this point.)
People who have posted more than once so far:
Tyrsis
Walls
Tmonsta
Rsoultin
Flazer
Tormented
The not-posters:
Gl0stix
Shining
Sky Dragon
Unreliable
Corynewb
Behold your king
Zeality
Rockz
Darubian
Meadowswillyoumarryme
Loafery
Phantom
I think there's a very good chance that 2 or even 3 in the list of not-posters are mafia. This list should be the starting point for our good guys. Let's see how the thread goes from here. If you are the seer, pay close attention from this point on, particularly to people in the not-posters list.
*Damdred For chief of police. Absolutely everyone should follow suit in this regard.
Watching the Eagles.
Sounds good, Tormented. See that Tyrsus? Now we're painting targets on people who already have targets, lol. No more need to fear being sacrificed.
So, I've just spent the last 30 minutes reading through this and so far SB is an idiot. I have been doing a bit of math and as shotty as my math may be I think I may have it down.
So basically, the only thing SB has done for the town is given the mafia a chance to push the odds dramatically in their favor. Any decent player would see it in their favor right out of the gate. They spend the next two nights double killing the odds go from 1 in 14 to 1 and 10.
You count the fact that the vigilantes are going to come in and start firing out of the gate (as in traditional sk fashion) then those are odds are brought down from 1/8 to hit a role. Who cares if they even bother with the masons? By that time unless the town gets lucky they are going to have it in the bag.
Way to go SB, I think you just screwed the game. I would like to lynch you but I think we need every person we can confirm at this point. Additionally, I am really at a loss as to how I feel about a day one lynch, and you all know how I love lynching me some noobs.
You need to think from all perspectives darubian, not just the mafias.
Mafia has a 3/14 chance to hit either 1 of our vigis or our seer. They need to kill both vigis to be effective, so really the only thing that would really fuck us is if they hit seer.
Meanwhile, our seer and vigis have 5/16 chance to hit mafia.
31% chance for the good guys to hit a mafia
21% chance for mafia to hit a power role (and only 7% that they get the seer).
If you include me in the confirmed town
Odd for mafia improve to 23%
Odds for town improve to 33%
No matter how you look at it, it's better for town this way.
*Damdred
Town good roles know who each other are, so they know the 4 Masons, possibly SB, and the three of them -- so that removes 8. With 23 players, that's 5/13 chance of hitting them.
In hindsight, forcing the issue was a good call so let's get over it.
lets go by that guys