Mafia has a 3/14 chance to hit either 1 of our vigis or our seer. They need to kill both vigis to be effective, so really the only thing that would really fuck us is if they hit seer.
Meanwhile, our seer and vigis have 5/16 chance to hit mafia.
31% chance for the good guys to hit a mafia 21% chance for mafia to hit a power role (and only 7% that they get the seer).
If you include me in the confirmed town
Odd for mafia improve to 23% Odds for town improve to 33%
No matter how you look at it, it's better for town this way.
They only need to kill three people, yo. Sure we have higher chances of killing a mafia member at first glance, but they will kill our vigis and detective before all of them die.
the bad guys dont even need to worry about the seer and vigilante, do you like playing 33% odds which in reality is really going to save them by blind guessing?
they have 100% kills on people who if left alone will only be a bigger hindrance as the game continues against the bad people, getting rid of them first is the #1 priority of theirs
ness and the untouchables will need to coordinate who is good and bad, not by randomly shooting, unless its shooting sb first of course, thats totally acceptable
lets just leave this whole game to lottery, sounds fun
maaaaaaaan. ive been working all day, not having to worry about getting robbed this round drastically reduces me logging on while at work. four pages catch up on...
and i love how sb works the probability only for killing bad guys for the untouchables, not factoring in the killing of good guys, which is far more probable and much worse, whereas no drawbacks for whoever mafia chooses since they know each other
flazer...the mafia have a 100% chance of killing a good guy no matter what every night. I also want to hear your reasoning on my you think the masons will be a bigger hindrance as the game goes along?
and i love how sb works the probability only for killing bad guys for the untouchables, not factoring in the killing of good guys, which is far more probable and much worse, whereas no drawbacks for whoever mafia chooses since they know each other
Eliot Ness (1/1) - the master detective, sworn to bring down Al Capone whatever the cost. once per night he can investigate somebody to see their role (seer). knows The Untouchables The Untouchables (2/2) - the small but elite crime fighting team, once per night they may CHOOSE to kill one player (vigilante). knows Eliot Ness
So they're only going to be killing Vanilla Towns if they miss. They will not be killing masons.
How would it be any better if the masons weren't known to the town? There would be even greater odds of hitting the town, and reduced odds of hitting the mafia. Seriously flazer you can't be that dumb to think that would be better. Listen to yourself lol
You make the point that the odds for the town to hit a mafia target are low. You argue that masons shouldn't reveal because of this. Yet you ignore the fact that if the masons didn't come out the odds for town to hit mafia are lower.
I have some theories as to what you might think, but I'm not gonna do the work for you. If you think the mason's should've stayed hidden then state your reasons. It doesn't matter if I can figure out what you might think, publicly stating what you think is important. So I'd like to hear it. Why do you think the masons staying hidden helps town, when from a numerical standpoint it increases the chance of town hitting town?
I really think it is safe to say that at this point we as a town should be able to pull away from what's already been done.
Right now, the only decision we should make is one that will make it either easier or harder on the mafia, and working against them to protect the power roles in the town is crucial.
Tomorrow will be the first day of lynching, now we need to decide as a group if we are going to roll the dice and lynch someone or if we are going to use odds against the mafia as clearly this is all we have now.
After all this strategy, why vote one of the masons chief? Unless they publicly state who they are going to block, it's not going to be very useful since they will be dead.
"We'll toss the dice however they fall, and snuggle the girls be they short or tall, then follow young Mat whenever he calls, to dance with Jak o' the Shadows."?
"We'll toss the dice however they fall, and snuggle the girls be they short or tall, then follow young Mat whenever he calls, to dance with Jak o' the Shadows."?
Comments
they have 100% kills on people who if left alone will only be a bigger hindrance as the game continues against the bad people, getting rid of them first is the #1 priority of theirs
ness and the untouchables will need to coordinate who is good and bad, not by randomly shooting, unless its shooting sb first of course, thats totally acceptable
lets just leave this whole game to lottery, sounds fun
Make me chief and I have double the power.
So they're only going to be killing Vanilla Towns if they miss. They will not be killing masons.
How would it be any better if the masons weren't known to the town? There would be even greater odds of hitting the town, and reduced odds of hitting the mafia. Seriously flazer you can't be that dumb to think that would be better. Listen to yourself lol
I have some theories as to what you might think, but I'm not gonna do the work for you. If you think the mason's should've stayed hidden then state your reasons. It doesn't matter if I can figure out what you might think, publicly stating what you think is important. So I'd like to hear it. Why do you think the masons staying hidden helps town, when from a numerical standpoint it increases the chance of town hitting town?
I WILL BELIEVE U IF U MAKE IT INTO A PIE CHART.
Right now, the only decision we should make is one that will make it either easier or harder on the mafia, and working against them to protect the power roles in the town is crucial.
Tomorrow will be the first day of lynching, now we need to decide as a group if we are going to roll the dice and lynch someone or if we are going to use odds against the mafia as clearly this is all we have now.
and snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
to dance with Jak o' the Shadows."?