If you rely on blue roles to win the game you will lose 100% of the time, sooner or later the mafia will find him and kill him its only a matter of time and where are you then?
If ness is about to die (which he shouldn't btw with 2 other people knowing him) he can either claim ora ctually act town.
And btw, if someone is scummy enough to be up for lynch and are actually town the vig will waste a shot that they could be takin somewhere else.
My advice also is that the masons should claim stright away so that it shortens the lynch pool. We are confirmed town but I will not reveal my other three partners unless the agree to it, if one of us die it 100% confirms the other three and helps the vig shoot even better.
and chance killing ness? That would pretty much end the game for the good guys.
I'm about to make a big post, but this his horribly dumb logic. We don't need ness to win the game. Stop playing crutch WW. You can win without seer roles.
That being said I agree with a no lynch vote, but your idea of "we might kill ness so we shouldn't kill" is moronic.
and chance killing ness? That would pretty much end the game for the good guys.
I'm about to make a big post, but this his horribly dumb logic. We don't need ness to win the game. Stop playing crutch WW. You can win without seer roles.
That being said I agree with a no lynch vote, but your idea of "we might kill ness so we shouldn't kill" is moronic.
Why do you agree with a no lynch here sb? Would you rather lurkers come back later or our vig waste shots on people we could handle during the day cycle?
This is valuable information and pro town movement that you are giving up.
and chance killing ness? That would pretty much end the game for the good guys.
I'm about to make a big post, but this his horribly dumb logic. We don't need ness to win the game. Stop playing crutch WW. You can win without seer roles.
That being said I agree with a no lynch vote, but your idea of "we might kill ness so we shouldn't kill" is moronic.
sigh whatever fine, ill keep my "logic" to myself
Ignore SB then, the logic of wanting to keep a cop alive is a good thing.
The logic that we have to have him to win is bad, mafia is not as big a crap shoot as people think it is when people actually try.
nice to see you back in the game, damdred, and with good ideas. agreed. if the masons are willing, you get 4 known non-mobsters right off the bat. a lynch or a mafia death confirms, so mafia is unlikely to target.
the other masons should not claim, or else you are eliminating the town pool.
ideally mafia want to kill the seer, because he is the greatest threat. in terms of having 3 factions 2 which are good, just by having 2 ppl know for certain the other person is good, greatly narrows down the possibilities for mafia. as of now we stand
11/4/3 vs 5
if the 4 group ids, and 3 group ids and mafia can kill 2 a night
we are voting into a pool of 5/16, so odds of killing mafia are 1 in 3. and mafia need at least 4 nights to be able to clean up all the knowledge that the townies have.
so dunno. we'll see how this plays out, it looks highly advantageous for the townies.
and not lynching first day, honestly does nothing. without votes and stuff, there is no difference compared to day 2, cuz until there is a decent amount of voting there is no other information that will help determine the mafia.
11 Uninformed individuals 1 Town of 4 1 Town of 3 with nightly kill powers 1 Mafia of 5 with 2 additional kills on top of nightly kills.
Town has a huge advantage here. We have 2 groups on the good team that can act together to protect each other. We have a seer who can pass information on to a kill team all at night without ever having to go public with anything. It is in town's best interests to delay, because we have a stupidly powerful seer+vigi combo with no limits to how many vigi shots we get.
If we can drag this out a few nights, our teams of good guys can lead the town to victory. Our plan should be delay unless our seer (ness) is killed.
Vanilla Town players should do your best to act like you have a role. Seer keep everything secret. Unless both of our vigis die, or our seer dies, there's no need to say anything at all in public. If anybody starts getting trained, vote to stop it. Every night we lose 1 townie, and that's fine. As long as we protect our big groups, we will eventually win.
I'm not sure what happens in the event of the tie vote, but if nobody is lynched in a tie, force tie votes as much as possible. The key here is delay delay delay, good guys lay low while we have our power combo in place.
I can understand not wanting to lynch based off pure guesswork. The first day maybe I can see the value since everyone is likely to be fumbling around blind, but once we start getting reads and actions to go off of...if we just rely on ness and the untouchables the mobsters have a much better chance of winning.
Actually upon further reading, it's not clear if the seer and vigis are in a private PM together, despite knowing each other. Can we get a mod to clear this up?
If they aren't together, game becomes a lot trickier and delaying might not be good anymore
What do you think of SB in one post yelling at someone for wanting to use a crutch (rely on blue roles) in ww, but in the very next large post he tells the town to delay as much as possible to rely on blue roles?
Though not directed at me, I'll say that I yell at him for making the correct choice for the wrong reasons. It's fucking dumb to not lynch because you might lynch 1 specific role. There are 5 mafia, there's a higher chance of hitting 1 of them than the seer.
However if seer + vigi are in a private PM together, that's so absurdly powerful. But as I read the rules I can't think they are, it would be too OP.
So that being said my initial analysis isn't entirely accurate. There are still lots of good guys that know other good guys though, and that will help as long as the masons work together.
We definitely can't stall like I proposed at first if we dont have the Seer + Vigi in a Private PM combo. I really think a lot of this game is going to be determined by the masons: masons watch out for mafia hopping on your band wagon. You guys will be the key to pointing things out later on.
Lol so many questions of me. Walls and SB both made some good points. I don't really agree though. The assumption here is that Ness will find the mobsters quickly, and the vigilantes will then act on it. Ness has to guess the right people, and has to be up in PM with the vigis. Too many ifs.
Masons should identify if we want to rely on town lynches. They shouldn't if we want to rely on Ness and vigis. I'd personally hedge my bets and rely on the town lynches.
As for changing positions...could be scummy, but I nearly changed my mind reading Walls' and SB's posts, too, so it's not like it's crazy for someone to reconsider their original idea.
I believe the no lynch method is the best method, but the lynch method is the most fun.
Lynching a random is heavily in favor of killing a good guy. Each time we lynch a player we will most likely kill a townie, and we are more likely to kill a townie with a role then a mafia player. Instead of taking this risk, we simply allow our investigator to investigate players and pass that information on to the untouchables and any other players he spies as good.
The lynching method just plays up a bunch of paranoia and will most likely make us kill a bunch of good guys before we ever get a mafia. Sure we have more evidence to review in the form of gutter posts, but we are more likely to help mafia kill good guys, specifically good guys with roles. It's certainly more fun though.
While me stating the statements might make them less true I would like to point out a few things:
- Mafia love to give town reads to town players. Why? While a Vanilla Town might think somebody is a town or a scum, A mafia player knows who is town and who is scum. So just because somebody defended somebody else on the chopping block as town doesn't mean they're innocent.
- This will be particularly confusing this game because of the various groups of people with additional information. If we lynch somebody and they flip mason, pay attention to who defended them. There's going to probably be some good AND some bad.
- While it might suck for you individually, if you are a vanilla town the best thing you can do right now is put doubt in the mind of the mafia. Make people think you are the seer or the vigi, without screwing the town over in the process. If we can get mafia to kill Vanilla Town instead of Masons or Vigi+seer we'll be in good shape.
Lol so many questions of me. Walls and SB both made some good points. I don't really agree though. The assumption here is that Ness will find the mobsters quickly, and the vigilantes will then act on it. Ness has to guess the right people, and has to be up in PM with the vigis. Too many ifs.
Masons should identify if we want to rely on town lynches. They shouldn't if we want to rely on Ness and vigis. I'd personally hedge my bets and rely on the town lynches.
As for changing positions...could be scummy, but I nearly changed my mind reading Walls' and SB's posts, too, so it's not like it's crazy for someone to reconsider their original idea.
Mason's should not reveal this early. Keep in mind mafia don't know which townies have roles yet. It's best to keep it that way. Having all the masons in tact later on in the game will be a valuable asset, when they can vote as a bloc. If they reveal immediately they're just going to get picked off.
Again, the key for us right now should be to get the mafia to Kill off Vanilla Townies, and not our power roles.
How will they relay this information to the untouchables? If he posts some form of message in the thread the mafia will intercept it at some point and kill him before they are found Ty, you know this you did this as mafia.
Good guys die no matter what in mafia its just how the game is, the informed vs the uninformed. Overall the game looks a bit imbalanced towards town side but thats for post game.
@SB, as much as you yell at people about relying on roles to play the game you think I would let you slip back on that without calling it out? And speaking for another player tsk tsk tsk good thing he answered .
@Rsoutlin its always good to ask people questions to start forming reads on them.
Masons should be ok with getting picked off one at a time it helps our power role of cop the most, it gives him 7 total people that he does not have to check out! Think about that over 4 nights all 4 masons will get picked off and the cop at that point will be able to have 11 peoples alignments add in the three vig shots you have 14 peoples alignemnts done before lynches.
How will they relay this information to the untouchables? If he posts some form of message in the thread the mafia will intercept it at some point and kill him before they are found Ty, you know this you did this as mafia.
Good guys die no matter what in mafia its just how the game is, the informed vs the uninformed. Overall the game looks a bit imbalanced towards town side but thats for post game.
@SB, as much as you yell at people about relying on roles to play the game you think I would let you slip back on that without calling it out? And speaking for another player tsk tsk tsk good thing he answered .
@Rsoutlin its always good to ask people questions to start forming reads on them.
Stock up a few mafia then reveal ingame. Masons reveal ingame. From there we find out the remaining mafia. We don't want to risk killing more townies then necessary up until that point.
11 reg town/ 4 masons /3 seer/vigi team 5 mafia <- who I assume all know each other
masons ident that's a chance of 5/16 about a 1 in 3 chance that anyone lynched or spied by town/ness is mafia
masons ident that's a chance of 3/14 over a 1 in 4 chance that mafia hits power team
odds say masons should ident and lynching works in town's favor</blockquote>
If the mason's identify now, 5/19 players will be mafia.
If they do not, it's 5/23
While our odds improve lynching wise, we will actively give the mafia a nice set of targets to immediately take out. This will make it significantly harder for town to win.
If they stay hidden until later they can make much more of an impact.
4/23 players isn't nearly as good as say 4/16. We shouldn't throw the masons away for a slightly better chance at lynching mafia day 1. Some Vanilla Towns are going to have to die, that's just how mafia works. We shouldn't be trying to save everyone, but rather giving our power players (masons included) the best chance.
Masons should be ok with getting picked off one at a time it helps our power role of cop the most, it gives him 7 total people that he does not have to check out! Think about that over 4 nights all 4 masons will get picked off and the cop at that point will be able to have 11 peoples alignments add in the three vig shots you have 14 peoples alignemnts done before lynches.
game gone easy
At that point it's a real power play to hoping we win. Not sure that would work out so easily with so many players early on.
11 reg town/ 4 masons /3 seer/vigi team 5 mafia <- who I assume all know each other
masons ident that's a chance of 5/16 about a 1 in 3 chance that anyone lynched or spied by town/ness is mafia
masons ident that's a chance of 3/14 over a 1 in 4 chance that mafia hits power team
odds say masons should ident and lynching works in town's favor</blockquote>
If the mason's identify now, 5/19 players will be mafia.
If they do not, it's 5/23
While our odds improve lynching wise, we will actively give the mafia a nice set of targets to immediately take out. This will make it significantly harder for town to win.
If they stay hidden until later they can make much more of an impact.
4/23 players isn't nearly as good as say 4/16. We shouldn't throw the masons away for a slightly better chance at lynching mafia day 1. Some Vanilla Towns are going to have to die, that's just how mafia works. We shouldn't be trying to save everyone, but rather giving our power players (masons included) the best chance.
I fail to see your point? If I was mafia I'd ignore the masons, personally, and if they don't that plays to town's favor.
while I agree with you, I am not totally sold that the mafia would even pick the masons off if they declared. You declaring now gives them 4 kills at a 3/14 shot the first two nights if they want to use both extra kills. Does that outweigh the 5/11 shot the cop would have? Maybe not, but it would be a little risky. Granted this is just my opinion. I am sure SB will probably shred it to pieces.
Masons should be ok with getting picked off one at a time it helps our power role of cop the most, it gives him 7 total people that he does not have to check out! Think about that over 4 nights all 4 masons will get picked off and the cop at that point will be able to have 11 peoples alignments add in the three vig shots you have 14 peoples alignemnts done before lynches.
game gone easy
I hadn't thought of it in terms of the seer. This puts a lot of pressure on the seer though, because he still has to get the information out to the public after doing the checks.
I can definitely see it working, but I feel like its still a risk. 4 players who all know each other can be a very powerful force, and giving that up to place all of our bets in a seer is risky. I would wait at least a couple of nights before revealing as masons.
Ultimately it's not up to me though. If the mason's do choose to reveal we will have a good plan to follow it up. It's up to them
while I agree with you, I am not totally sold that the mafia would even pick the masons off if they declared. You declaring now gives them 4 kills at a 3/14 shot the first two nights if they want to use both extra kills. Does that outweigh the 5/11 shot the cop would have? Maybe not, but it would be a little risky. Granted this is just my opinion. I am sure SB will probably shred it to pieces.
It's an interesting dilemma. Go for the higher value targets and risk hitting a low value one, or stick to the mid value targets for assured value?
It's hard to say, but man things could really swing one way or the other really fast. With potentially 6 deaths in the first 2 nights a lot could happen.
It's an interesting dilemma. Go for the higher value targets and risk hitting a low value one, or stick to the mid value targets for assured value?
It's hard to say, but man things could really swing one way or the other really fast. With potentially 6 deaths in the first 2 nights a lot could happen.
would they even be mid value targets at that point? Revealing would essentially make them no different than town. Their only difference to town right now is that they know each other and can vouch for each other. Revealing, while possibly helpful, would remove that.
Comments
If ness is about to die (which he shouldn't btw with 2 other people knowing him) he can either claim ora ctually act town.
And btw, if someone is scummy enough to be up for lynch and are actually town the vig will waste a shot that they could be takin somewhere else.
My advice also is that the masons should claim stright away so that it shortens the lynch pool. We are confirmed town but I will not reveal my other three partners unless the agree to it, if one of us die it 100% confirms the other three and helps the vig shoot even better.
I am a mason
This is valuable information and pro town movement that you are giving up.
The logic that we have to have him to win is bad, mafia is not as big a crap shoot as people think it is when people actually try.
ideally mafia want to kill the seer, because he is the greatest threat.
in terms of having 3 factions
2 which are good,
just by having 2 ppl know for certain the other person is good, greatly narrows down the possibilities for mafia. as of now we stand
11/4/3
vs
5
if the 4 group ids, and 3 group ids
and mafia can kill 2 a night
we are voting into a pool of 5/16, so odds of killing mafia are 1 in 3.
and mafia need at least 4 nights to be able to clean up all the knowledge that the townies have.
so dunno. we'll see how this plays out, it looks highly advantageous for the townies.
and not lynching first day, honestly does nothing. without votes and stuff, there is no difference compared to day 2, cuz until there is a decent amount of voting there is no other information that will help determine the mafia.
11 Uninformed individuals
1 Town of 4
1 Town of 3 with nightly kill powers
1 Mafia of 5 with 2 additional kills on top of nightly kills.
Town has a huge advantage here. We have 2 groups on the good team that can act together to protect each other. We have a seer who can pass information on to a kill team all at night without ever having to go public with anything. It is in town's best interests to delay, because we have a stupidly powerful seer+vigi combo with no limits to how many vigi shots we get.
If we can drag this out a few nights, our teams of good guys can lead the town to victory. Our plan should be delay unless our seer (ness) is killed.
Vanilla Town players should do your best to act like you have a role. Seer keep everything secret. Unless both of our vigis die, or our seer dies, there's no need to say anything at all in public. If anybody starts getting trained, vote to stop it. Every night we lose 1 townie, and that's fine. As long as we protect our big groups, we will eventually win.
I'm not sure what happens in the event of the tie vote, but if nobody is lynched in a tie, force tie votes as much as possible. The key here is delay delay delay, good guys lay low while we have our power combo in place.
If they aren't together, game becomes a lot trickier and delaying might not be good anymore
What do you think of SB in one post yelling at someone for wanting to use a crutch (rely on blue roles) in ww, but in the very next large post he tells the town to delay as much as possible to rely on blue roles?
However if seer + vigi are in a private PM together, that's so absurdly powerful. But as I read the rules I can't think they are, it would be too OP.
So that being said my initial analysis isn't entirely accurate. There are still lots of good guys that know other good guys though, and that will help as long as the masons work together.
We definitely can't stall like I proposed at first if we dont have the Seer + Vigi in a Private PM combo. I really think a lot of this game is going to be determined by the masons: masons watch out for mafia hopping on your band wagon. You guys will be the key to pointing things out later on.
Lol so many questions of me. Walls and SB both made some good points. I don't really agree though. The assumption here is that Ness will find the mobsters quickly, and the vigilantes will then act on it. Ness has to guess the right people, and has to be up in PM with the vigis. Too many ifs.
Masons should identify if we want to rely on town lynches. They shouldn't if we want to rely on Ness and vigis. I'd personally hedge my bets and rely on the town lynches.
As for changing positions...could be scummy, but I nearly changed my mind reading Walls' and SB's posts, too, so it's not like it's crazy for someone to reconsider their original idea.
Lynching a random is heavily in favor of killing a good guy. Each time we lynch a player we will most likely kill a townie, and we are more likely to kill a townie with a role then a mafia player. Instead of taking this risk, we simply allow our investigator to investigate players and pass that information on to the untouchables and any other players he spies as good.
The lynching method just plays up a bunch of paranoia and will most likely make us kill a bunch of good guys before we ever get a mafia. Sure we have more evidence to review in the form of gutter posts, but we are more likely to help mafia kill good guys, specifically good guys with roles. It's certainly more fun though.
But who cares I'm dead tonight anyway.
- Mafia love to give town reads to town players. Why? While a Vanilla Town might think somebody is a town or a scum, A mafia player knows who is town and who is scum. So just because somebody defended somebody else on the chopping block as town doesn't mean they're innocent.
- This will be particularly confusing this game because of the various groups of people with additional information. If we lynch somebody and they flip mason, pay attention to who defended them. There's going to probably be some good AND some bad.
- While it might suck for you individually, if you are a vanilla town the best thing you can do right now is put doubt in the mind of the mafia. Make people think you are the seer or the vigi, without screwing the town over in the process. If we can get mafia to kill Vanilla Town instead of Masons or Vigi+seer we'll be in good shape.
Again, the key for us right now should be to get the mafia to Kill off Vanilla Townies, and not our power roles.
11 reg town/ 4 masons /3 seer/vigi team
5 mafia <- who I assume all know each other
masons ident that's a chance of 5/16 about a 1 in 3 chance that anyone lynched or spied by town/ness is mafia
masons ident that's a chance of 3/14 over a 1 in 4 chance that mafia hits power team
odds say masons should ident and lynching works in town's favor
Good guys die no matter what in mafia its just how the game is, the informed vs the uninformed. Overall the game looks a bit imbalanced towards town side but thats for post game.
@SB, as much as you yell at people about relying on roles to play the game you think I would let you slip back on that without calling it out? And speaking for another player tsk tsk tsk good thing he answered .
@Rsoutlin its always good to ask people questions to start forming reads on them.
game gone easy
I can definitely see it working, but I feel like its still a risk. 4 players who all know each other can be a very powerful force, and giving that up to place all of our bets in a seer is risky. I would wait at least a couple of nights before revealing as masons.
Ultimately it's not up to me though. If the mason's do choose to reveal we will have a good plan to follow it up. It's up to them
It's hard to say, but man things could really swing one way or the other really fast. With potentially 6 deaths in the first 2 nights a lot could happen.